Oscar Tout Sheet
I was so bummed out by the continuing WGA strike, I missed the deadline to publish my annual Oscar Tout Sheet in AC Weekly. I’ve been predicting the nominees in the form of a racetrack tout sheet since my days writing about movies for the Stockton College newspaper The Argo.
Therefore, my 26th Oscar Tout Sheet has been condensed as this blog entry. Since the Oscar TV presentation is probably going to be shot down by the ongoing strike, I’m really unhappy that the cast of Juno and writer Diablo Cody will not get the chance to plug their delightful indie film on the biggest movie fan night of the year. It’s too damn depressing; no wonder I let the deadline pass!
Anyway, enough hand wringing: Here are my guesses for the nominations:
Race 1 Best Supporting Actress
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone EVEN
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There EVEN
Ruby Dee, American Gangster 3 to 1
Jennifer Garner, Juno 9 to 1
Allison Janney, Juno 15 to 1
Amy Ryan and Cate Blanchett are the critics’ darlings, Ruby Dee was great in a tiny role, and Juno is coming on strong.
Race 2, Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men 1 to 5
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War 4 to 1
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton 5 to 1
Casey Affleck, Jesse James 6 to 1
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild 10 to 1
J.K. Simmons, Juno 25 to 1
Javier Bardem wins; the others fill out the dance card.
Race 3, Best Actress
Ellen Page, Juno EVEN
Julie Christie, Away From Her EVEN
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose 2 to 1
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart 7 to 1
Laura Linney, The Savages 12 to 1
Keri Russell, Waitress 18 to 1
I’d love to see Page win it, but it will be a fight between Cotillard (she deserves it) and Christie. Keri Russell’s acclaim peaked too early.
Race 4, Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood EVEN
George Clooney, Michael Clayton 2 to 1
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises 6 to 1
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah 10 to 1
Josh Brolin, No Country For Old Men 15 to 1
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild 30 to 1
Chris Cooper, Breach 50 to 1
No Johnny Depp. I stand by that omission. Day-Lewis is hot right now, Clooney was great and is an Oscar favorite, Viggo is a make-up nod for not getting a nomination for A History of Violence. Brolin deserves it but is a longshot; Chris Cooper’s movie came out a year ago.
Race 5, Best Director
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men 5 to 2
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood EVEN
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton 9 to 1
Sean Penn, Into the Wild 10 to 1
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead 15 to 1
Jason Reitman, Juno 18 to 1
Ben Affleck, Gone Baby Gone 50 to 1
Coens take home the prize but I’d love to see Ben Affleck get recognized for his brilliant work. A Lumet nomination would bring a big smile to my face.
The Oscar Derby, Best Picture
No Country For Old Men 3 to 2
There Will Be Blood 2 to 1
Juno 3 to 1
Michael Clayton 5 to 1
Atonement 8 to 1
Before the Devil Knows Your Dead 25 to 1
Gone Baby Gone 50 to 1
A battle between late-charging There Will Be Blood and No Country For Old Men. Atonement is overrated, Juno will gain just by being nominated and Michael Clayton is an also ran. Gone Baby Gone is not getting enough love; Sidney’s getting plenty of love, but not enough for a best picture nod.
Best Best: Javier Bardem
Longshot Stab: J.K. Simmons
One more quick note. Diablo Cody will earn an original screenplay nom for her great debut script for Juno. The nominees will be announced on the morning news programs this Tuesday, Jan. 22.